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National Agriculture Policy (NAP) and Vision 2030
Zambian Government recognizes the importance of the agriculture sector in supplementing mining as a major economic activity and
contributor of foreign exchange earnings.
According to Zambia’s second National Agriculture Policy - 2016, 58% of the country’s land mass (42 Million hectares) is classified as
medium to high potential for agricultural production with only 14 % of total agricultural land being utilized and a further 42% that can
be brought under production. Zambia also has about 40% of the underground and surface water resources in the SADC region.
Agriculture accounts for 10 % of GDP and provide livelihoods for over 70% of the population and 67% of the labour force.
Some of the key challenges identified in the 2016 NAP include: The Vision of the Second National Agricultural Policy will be
1. Low agricultural production and productivity; attained through strengthening the policy, legal and regulatory
2. Diminished investment in agricultural research and framework and implementing the following policy objectives:
development (R&D); I. Increase agricultural production and productivity
3. Inefficient agricultural extension service delivery; II. Increase effectiveness and efficiency of agricultural Research
4. Low levels of agricultural mechanization among and Development (R&D)
smallholder farmers; III. Strengthen the capacities of Agricultural Training Institutions
5. High dependence on rain-fed agriculture and low IV. Improve the efficiency of agricultural markets for inputs and
levels of irrigation; outputs
6. Over-fishing in natural water bodies; V. Promote availability of and accessibility to agricultural finance
7. High post-harvest losses credit facilities and insurance
8. Limited access and availability to agricultural finance VI. Increase private sector participation in agricultural
and credit facilities; development
9. Low private sector participation in agricultural VII. Improve food and nutrition security
development; VIII. Promote the sustainable management and use of natural
10. Reduced net value of agricultural exports resources
11. Unsustainable use of natural resources; IX. Mainstream environment and Climate Change in the
12. Low resilience to Climate Change effects. agriculture sector
X. Promote the mainstreaming of Gender, HIV and AIDS, and
governance issues in agriculture
Source: African Development Bank
Zambia Economy Snapshot USAID 2019-2021 Country Development Cooperation Strategy (CDCS)
Zambia’s economy fell into recession USAID/Zambia is implementing its 2019 – 2024 CDCS which aims to advance
attributable to the adverse impact of the Zambia’s journey to self-reliance (J2SR). The CDCS goal statement is: USAID will
COVID–19 pandemic. partner with the Zambian government, civil society and private sector to advance
Real GDP contracted by 4.9% in 2020, the country’s self-reliance through more effective development choices and
following a 4.0% growth in 2018 and 1.9% governance, enterprise-driven economic growth, and increased resilience among
in 2019 following decline in all the key its vulnerable citizens.
sectors of the economy. Current The CDCS espouses, among other objectives the need for transformative and
macroeconomic challenges include, high sustainable gains in effective, citizen-responsive governance, rural poverty
inflation that rose to 17.4% in 2020 , reduction and sustainable natural resource management.
widening fiscal deficits, high public debt In line with Prosper Africa objectives, the CDCS is focused on reducing trade and
that increased to 104% of GDP, low investment barriers, creating incentives for private-sector investment in rural
international reserves, and tight liquidity areas by addressing the underlying policy and institutional constraints. The CDCS
conditions. also supports efforts aimed at eliminating market-distorting interventions in
Mining output is on a recovery path owing agricultural input and output markets and the lifting of restrictions on
to production disruptions in South America international trade in agricultural commodities.
following declining global demand for The Zambia CDCS highlights three key intermediate result area in the agricultural
copper. The economy is projected to grow and rural development sector as illustrated below.
by 1.0% in 2021 and 2.0% in 2022,
underpinned by recovery in the mining,
tourism, and manufacturing sectors. Intermediate Result Areas:
Development
Objective 2:
IR 2.1: Rural Business Enabling Environment Improved
Rural Poverty Reduced IR 2.2: Rural Enterprises Strengthened
through IR 2.3: Natural Resources More Sustainably Managed
Enterprise-Driven
Source: African Development Bank Inclusive Economic
Growth
Preliminary Findings on Zambia’s Agriculture Trade Competitiveness
1. On Intraregional agricultural trade patterns the assessment
established that, although not ranked as highly as Kenya and 5. Zambia’s leading regional partner export markets includes
Tanzania, Zambia is among the top four leading players in Burundi, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda and Tanzania. In terms of
regional and global agricultural exports from the COMESA production and export similarity (production similarity index -
and EAC regions. QSI) , it has been noted that Zambia and Zimbabwe have
relatively high similarity in the production of sugar cane,
2. Zambia has the lowest share of regional trade estimated at maize and cassava thereby presenting a scenario for
less than 3% with South Sudan leading at 54% indicating a heightened competition between the countries.
preference for global markets my member countries. The
country’ agricultural exports is also one of the lowest at 6.9% 6. An assessment of the country’s against low similarity in
of total exports, leading DR Congo at 1% and South Sudan at patterns of production specialization which suggests
1.8%. untapped export expansion potential in the region (export
similarity indices -ESI), It was established that all country pairs
3. Between 2015 to 2019, Zambia’s top five export commodities involving any of the nine countries of interest in the study
to COMESA region valued at $300 million incudes maize have their ESI values within a range that presents opportunity
23.8%, cane or beet sugar 21.9% waters 9.8%, tobacco, for trad expansion with the exception of Zambia and Uganda
unmanufactured 8.9% oil-cake and other solid residues 4.3 %. which presented a slightly here level of similarity.
Leading five global agricultural exports include tobacco
valued at $205.4 million, unmanufactured cane or beet sugar
Commodity Similarities: The study established overall low
4. Over the same period imports top agriculture commodity production and export commodity similarity indices
imports from COMESA included margarine, tobacco products, demonstrates the existence of sufficient dissimilarity in the
vegetables, fruit juices and palm oil valued at $15 million. Key current production and trading patterns between East African
imports from global markets includes palm oil, malted beer, countries; this is indicative of some scope for transborder
food preparations, milk and cream as well as soyabean oil trade expansion in the region.
valued at $115.3 million.
Commodity Overlap and Trade Expansion:
In assessing the types and volumes of similar commodities imported and exported by the same country or region (trade overlap
indicator – TOI), it emerged that there is a considerable degree of overlapping trade flows estimated at 37 percent for Zambia in
2015-2019. Redirecting such flows, may present opportunity to expand transborder trade within the region.
The analysis of the extent to which there exists overlapping trade flows at individual product level for a country or region (Trade
Expansion Index -TEI) It was established that Zambia’s products of the milling industry and livestock are among the best
candidates for short term trade expansion.
Zambia’s performance in regional agricultural markets and changes in trade competitiveness
1. Zambia has four commodities in the list of the top ten Products with highest trade expansion index values among COMESA
countries, 2003-2007 and 2015-2019. These include: Products of the milling industry, Live animals, Products of the milling
industry and Edible veg and certain roots and tubers.
2. Regarding actual trade performance Zambia has been identified among four countries that has achieved a positive rate of
growth of exports but not fast enough to avert a loss of export market share.
3. Zambia is also listed among 5 (five) countries in the region that have demonstrated fast intraregional exports growth as
compared to its total exports.
4. An analysis of a sample of commodities for which individual countries are the most competitive revealed that Zambia was most
competitive in cottonseed, groundnuts and other dairy products.
5. The study assessed the magnitude of competitiveness gain or loss realized by individual commodities in world export markets
between 2003-2007 and 2015-2019. Zambia was included in a list of 10 (ten) countries that have incurred the biggest loss in
competitiveness.
Long Term Regional Trade Outlook and Agricultural Value Chains Prioritization
BASE LINE SCENARIO
Assuming regional trade patterns continue to follow historical trajectory without any major alteration through 2030. The size of
intraregional agricultural trade is expected to continue its decline before stabilizing and starting to reverse around 2027/28. Over the
next decade, the total value of agricultural exports is projected to drop by more than half, from US$0.5 billion to a little less than
US$0.25 billion.
4. Meat exports, one of the commodities that Zambia is well
1. This trend is largely driven by an assumed of continued positioned to capture additional export market share in, is
decline in intraregional cereals exports, triggered projected to rise sharply in intraregional exports, from $35
primarily by falling cereal yields and harvested areas million currently to $60 million by 2030 under baseline
over the last decade in number of member states. conditions.
Consequently, domestic demand will surpass supply 5. Between 2010 and 2019 crop yield declined were recorded for
resulting in reduced exports from 50% to 10%. The maize, rice sorghum, millet wheat, Irish potatoes, sweet
turn around in 2027/28 will be driven by potatoes, oil, ground nuts, oil seed, soy bean sugarcane, other
compensation of reduction in Egypt and Malawi’s fruits and seed cotton.
exports by emerging exports from Zambia, Ethiopia
and Tanzania. T 10% Reduction in trade costs
2. Study analysis indicates that Effective reduction of C Significant export growth in chickens, cattle, pigs, sheep, goats and other
A live animals. Least change will be realized in skin, cotton, tobacco and
overall trading costs in the region by 10 percent would P
M coffee.
I
raise regional exports by about US$ 20 million above
N
O
baseline level; eliminating cross-border harassment I
T Removal of cross border trade barriers
and raising production yields by 10 percent would, N
E Key growth points will include chickens, cattle, pigs, ground nuts and
V
respectively, boost exports by an additional $30 and 40 R cottonseed. With the last change realized in spices, soybeans skin.
E
million. T
N
I
3. The introduction of the three trade improvement L
A
I 10% increase in crop yields
scenarios has the potential of increased the combined T
N The greatest improvement will be witnessed in the exports of spices,
three country market share by between 50% to 75%. E
T soybean and tea. While this kay have a negative impact on the exports and
O
P skin. of chickens,
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