149x Filetype PPT File size 1.11 MB Source: www.csus.edu
Learning Objectives Identify Principles of Forecasting Explain the steps in the forecasting process Identify types of forecasting methods and their characteristics Describe time series and causal models © Wiley 2010 2 Learning Objectives con’t Generate forecasts for data with different patterns: level, trend, seasonality, and cyclical Describe causal modeling using linear regression Compute forecast accuracy Explain how forecasting models should be selected © Wiley 2010 3 Principles of Forecasting Many types of forecasting models that differ in complexity and amount of data & way they generate forecasts: 1. Forecasts are rarely perfect 2. Forecasts are more accurate for grouped data than for individual items 3. Forecast are more accurate for shorter than longer time periods © Wiley 2010 4 Types of Forecasting Methods Decide what needs to be forecast Level of detail, units of analysis & time horizon required Evaluate and analyze appropriate data Identify needed data & whether it’s available Select and test the forecasting model Cost, ease of use & accuracy Generate the forecast Monitor forecast accuracy over time © Wiley 2010 5 Types of Forecasting Methods Forecasting methods are classified into two groups: © Wiley 2010 6
no reviews yet
Please Login to review.