Excel Sample Sheet 41694 | 50831 Revenueforecasting Suppdata

Partial file snippet.

Sheet 1: Contents

	
	
		This file presents data that supplement CBO's November 2015 report, CBO's Revenue Forecasting Record.
	
	
		www.cbo.gov/publication/50831
	
	
		

	
	
		

	
	
		Contents
	
	
		

	
	
		Data Underlying Table 1
	
	
		1. Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections of Total Revenues
	
	
		

	
	
		Data Underlying Table 3
	
	
		2. Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections Attributable to Misestimates of GDP (or GNP)
	
	
		3. Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections Attributable to Misestimates of Revenues as a Percentage of GDP (or GNP)
	
	
		

	
	
		Data Underlying Table 4
	
	
		4. Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections of Individual Income Taxes
	
	
		5. Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections of Payroll Taxes
	
	
		6. Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections of Corporate Income Taxes
	
	
		7. Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections of Excise Taxes
	
	
		8. Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections of Customs Duties
	
	
		9. Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections of Estate and Gift Taxes
	
	
		10. Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections of Miscellaneous Receipts
	
	
		

	
	
		Data Underlying the Figures
	
	
		Figure 1. Forecast Errors for CBO’s and the Administration’s Two-Year Revenue Projections
	
	
		Figure 3. CBO’s Two-Year Revenue Projections Compared With Actual Amounts
	
	
		Figure 4. Forecast Errors for CBO’s and the Administration’s Six-Year Revenue Projections
	
	
		Figure 5. Root Mean Square Errors of CBO’s and the Administration’s Two-Year Revenue Projections Produced Near Business Cycle Peaks Compared With Those Produced at Other Times
	
	
		Figure 6. Forecast Errors for CBO’s Two-Year Projections of GDP and of Revenues as a Percentage of GDP
	
	
		Figure 7. Root Mean Square Errors of CBO’s and the Administration’s Two-Year Projections, by Source of Revenues
	
	
		

	
	
		

	
	
		

	
	
		Note: Measures of performance were computed using unrounded data.
	



Sheet 2: 1. Total Revenues

	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
		This file presents data that supplement CBO's November 2015 report, CBO's Revenue Forecasting Record.
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		www.cbo.gov/publication/50831
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections of Total Revenues
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Billions of Dollars, by Fiscal Year
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Projection Prepared in January or February
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Year 1 of Projection
		Actual Amount for Year 1
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		CBO's Projections Adjusted for Subsequently Enacted Legislation
		

		CBO's Forecast Errors
		
	
		CBO's Projections
		

		Estimated Effect of Legislation Enacted After CBO's Projections Were Prepared
		

		(CBO's projections plus estimated effects of subsequently enacted legislation)
		

		(CBO's projections adjusted for subsequently enacted legislation minus actual amounts)
		
	
		Year 1
		Year 2
		Year 3
		Year 4
		Year 5
		Year 6
		

		Year 1
		Year 2
		Year 3
		Year 4
		Year 5
		Year 6
		

		Year 1
		Year 2
		Year 3
		Year 4
		Year 5
		Year 6
		

		Year 1
		Year 2
		Year 3
		Year 4
		Year 5
		Year 6
	
	
		1982
		1982
		617.8
		631.0
		652.0
		701.0
		763.0
		818.0
		882.0
		

		0.0
		20.0
		46.9
		63.1
		76.9
		109.9
		

		631.0
		672.0
		747.9
		826.1
		894.9
		991.9
		

		13.2
		71.4
		81.5
		92.1
		125.7
		137.6
	
	
		1983
		1983
		600.6
		606.0
		653.0
		715.0
		768.0
		822.0
		878.0
		

		0.0
		4.9
		17.1
		25.9
		51.9
		65.9
		

		606.0
		657.9
		732.1
		793.9
		873.9
		943.9
		

		5.4
		-8.5
		-1.9
		24.7
		19.6
		34.6
	
	
		1984
		1984
		666.4
		663.0
		732.9
		794.8
		863.4
		945.0
		1,015.6
		

		0.9
		10.1
		17.9
		41.9
		43.9
		43.1
		

		663.9
		743.0
		812.7
		905.3
		988.9
		1,058.7
		

		-2.5
		9.0
		43.5
		51.0
		79.6
		67.6
	
	
		1985
		1985
		734.0
		734.9
		788.4
		855.2
		934.2
		1,004.5
		1,087.6
		

		-0.2
		1.6
		19.6
		19.2
		16.4
		28.7
		

		734.8
		790.0
		874.9
		953.4
		1,021.0
		1,116.4
		

		0.8
		20.8
		20.6
		44.1
		29.8
		84.4
	
	
		1986
		1986
		769.2
		777.8
		844.0
		921.0
		991.3
		1,067.5
		1,143.6
		

		0.8
		19.6
		18.8
		15.9
		28.0
		48.6
		

		778.6
		863.6
		939.8
		1,007.3
		1,095.5
		1,192.2
		

		9.4
		9.3
		30.6
		16.2
		63.5
		137.2
	
	
		1987
		1987
		854.3
		833.9
		900.2
		961.8
		1,050.4
		1,137.5
		1,220.2
		

		0.0
		10.6
		16.3
		21.2
		37.5
		38.1
		

		833.9
		910.8
		978.1
		1,071.6
		1,175.1
		1,258.3
		

		-20.4
		1.5
		-13.0
		39.6
		120.1
		167.1
	
	
		1988
		1988
		909.2
		897.3
		953.0
		1,036.0
		1,111.9
		1,181.3
		1,262.2
		

		0.0
		0.1
		3.5
		20.6
		24.9
		36.0
		

		897.3
		953.1
		1,039.5
		1,132.6
		1,206.2
		1,298.2
		

		-11.9
		-38.0
		7.5
		77.6
		115.0
		143.9
	
	
		1989
		1989
		991.1
		982.9
		1,068.6
		1,140.2
		1,208.7
		1,280.5
		1,358.7
		

		0.5
		-0.7
		15.4
		19.2
		29.8
		61.8
		

		983.4
		1,067.9
		1,155.5
		1,227.9
		1,310.2
		1,420.5
		

		-7.8
		36.0
		100.5
		136.7
		155.9
		161.9
	
	
		1990
		1990
		1,032.0
		1,067.2
		1,137.3
		1,203.8
		1,276.7
		1,354.5
		1,437.7
		

		0.0
		16.8
		20.9
		30.6
		61.8
		80.9
		

		1,067.2
		1,154.1
		1,224.7
		1,307.3
		1,416.4
		1,518.5
		

		35.2
		99.1
		133.4
		153.0
		157.8
		166.8
	
	
		1991
		1991
		1,055.0
		1,093.8
		1,169.7
		1,251.0
		1,331.9
		1,415.9
		1,496.4
		

		-1.0
		-12.1
		-1.2
		24.8
		42.2
		49.1
		

		1,092.8
		1,157.6
		1,249.8
		1,356.7
		1,458.1
		1,545.5
		

		37.8
		66.4
		95.4
		98.1
		106.3
		92.5
	
	
		1992
		1992
		1,091.2
		1,102.4
		1,178.7
		1,262.7
		1,341.5
		1,415.1
		1,491.6
		

		-14.5
		-0.9
		25.5
		42.5
		49.4
		62.2
		

		1,087.9
		1,177.8
		1,288.2
		1,384.0
		1,464.5
		1,553.8
		

		-3.3
		23.4
		29.6
		32.2
		11.5
		-25.4
	
	
		1993
		1993
		1,154.3
		1,142.7
		1,215.3
		1,290.6
		1,356.2
		1,413.7
		1,481.6
		

		0.0
		26.3
		43.7
		50.0
		62.9
		49.1
		

		1,142.7
		1,241.6
		1,334.4
		1,406.2
		1,476.6
		1,530.7
		

		-11.7
		-17.0
		-17.4
		-46.8
		-102.6
		-191.0
	
	
		1994
		1994
		1,258.6
		1,250.5
		1,338.2
		1,410.7
		1,478.7
		1,555.9
		1,629.9
		

		0.0
		0.3
		-1.4
		2.3
		-10.7
		-6.8
		

		1,250.5
		1,338.5
		1,409.4
		1,481.0
		1,545.2
		1,623.1
		

		-8.1
		-13.3
		-43.7
		-98.2
		-176.6
		-204.3
	
	
		1995
		1995
		1,351.8
		1,355.2
		1,417.7
		1,475.5
		1,546.4
		1,618.3
		1,697.5
		

		-0.2
		-0.1
		3.7
		-8.0
		-3.4
		-14.5
		

		1,355.0
		1,417.6
		1,479.2
		1,538.4
		1,614.9
		1,683.0
		

		3.2
		-35.4
		-100.0
		-183.4
		-212.5
		-342.2
	
	
		1996
		1996
		1,453.1
		1,428.3
		1,483.3
		1,543.6
		1,609.0
		1,680.6
		1,757.6
		

		0.1
		3.7
		-8.9
		-5.0
		-16.9
		-102.7
		

		1,428.3
		1,486.9
		1,534.7
		1,604.0
		1,663.8
		1,654.9
		

		-24.7
		-92.3
		-187.1
		-223.4
		-361.4
		-336.2
	
	
		1997
		1997
		1,579.2
		1,507.3
		1,566.9
		1,633.6
		1,705.3
		1,780.9
		1,860.2
		

		2.8
		-8.5
		-5.5
		-17.6
		-102.9
		-105.1
		

		1,510.1
		1,558.4
		1,628.1
		1,687.8
		1,678.0
		1,755.2
		

		-69.1
		-163.3
		-199.4
		-337.4
		-313.1
		-97.9
	
	
		1998
		1998
		1,721.7
		1,664.8
		1,728.5
		1,778.6
		1,846.6
		1,929.8
		2,007.7
		

		0.6
		1.3
		5.3
		-79.4
		-87.6
		-187.1
		

		1,665.4
		1,729.8
		1,783.9
		1,767.2
		1,842.3
		1,820.6
		

		-56.4
		-97.6
		-241.2
		-223.9
		-10.9
		38.2
	
	
		1999
		1999
		1,827.5
		1,814.6
		1,870.0
		1,930.4
		2,014.6
		2,090.6
		2,184.0
		

		0.0
		3.2
		-78.7
		-85.7
		-185.4
		-270.6
		

		1,814.6
		1,873.2
		1,851.6
		1,928.9
		1,905.2
		1,913.4
		

		-12.9
		-152.0
		-139.4
		75.7
		122.9
		33.3
	
	
		2000
		2000
		2,025.2
		1,945.1
		2,016.3
		2,096.2
		2,176.7
		2,262.5
		2,361.4
		

		0.0
		-72.7
		-77.7
		-183.2
		-268.6
		-215.3
		

		1,945.1
		1,943.6
		2,018.6
		1,993.5
		1,993.9
		2,146.1
		

		-80.1
		-47.5
		165.4
		211.2
		113.8
		-7.5
	
	
		2001
		2001
		1,991.1
		2,134.6
		2,235.8
		2,343.0
		2,453.0
		2,569.8
		2,688.8
		

		-70.2
		-74.6
		-179.6
		-265.1
		-211.5
		-189.7
		

		2,064.4
		2,161.2
		2,163.5
		2,187.9
		2,358.3
		2,499.1
		

		73.3
		308.1
		381.2
		307.8
		204.7
		92.2
	
	
		2002
		2002
		1,853.1
		1,982.7
		2,070.5
		2,205.9
		2,341.5
		2,447.3
		2,568.2
		

		-42.9
		-93.3
		-161.9
		-108.5
		-61.2
		-78.0
		

		1,939.8
		1,977.1
		2,044.0
		2,233.0
		2,386.0
		2,490.1
		

		86.6
		194.8
		163.9
		79.4
		-20.9
		-77.8
	
	
		2003
		2003
		1,782.3
		1,921.5
		2,054.4
		2,225.1
		2,370.1
		2,504.7
		2,647.8
		

		-53.3
		-132.2
		-104.3
		-76.7
		-94.7
		-237.0
		

		1,868.2
		1,922.2
		2,120.8
		2,293.3
		2,409.9
		2,410.8
		

		85.9
		42.0
		-32.8
		-113.5
		-158.0
		-113.2
	
	
		2004
		2004
		1,880.1
		1,817.1
		2,049.1
		2,255.9
		2,385.4
		2,505.5
		2,643.7
		

		3.3
		-26.3
		-56.2
		-81.2
		-220.3
		-205.5
		

		1,820.5
		2,022.7
		2,199.7
		2,304.2
		2,285.2
		2,438.2
		

		-59.6
		-130.9
		-207.2
		-263.7
		-238.8
		333.2
	
	
		2005
		2005
		2,153.6
		2,057.3
		2,212.3
		2,357.0
		2,507.7
		2,661.9
		2,806.4
		

		0.1
		-12.0
		-55.3
		-205.8
		-197.0
		-233.5
		

		2,057.3
		2,200.3
		2,301.7
		2,301.8
		2,464.8
		2,573.0
		

		-96.3
		-206.6
		-266.3
		-222.2
		359.9
		410.3
	
	
		2006
		2006
		2,406.9
		2,312.4
		2,461.2
		2,597.8
		2,742.8
		2,882.7
		3,138.5
		

		-4.4
		-47.8
		-202.4
		-194.7
		-231.0
		-405.2
		

		2,308.1
		2,413.4
		2,395.4
		2,548.1
		2,651.7
		2,733.3
		

		-98.8
		-154.6
		-128.6
		443.1
		488.9
		429.8
	
	
		2007
		2007
		2,568.0
		2,542.3
		2,719.6
		2,809.3
		2,900.8
		3,166.6
		3,404.4
		

		-0.2
		-184.4
		-168.8
		-211.9
		-396.0
		-391.3
		

		2,542.1
		2,535.2
		2,640.5
		2,688.9
		2,770.6
		3,013.0
		

		-25.9
		11.3
		535.5
		526.1
		467.2
		562.8
	
	
		2008
		2008
		2,524.0
		2,654.4
		2,817.0
		2,907.0
		3,181.5
		3,442.3
		3,584.7
		

		-114.8
		-188.1
		-208.4
		-394.5
		-401.3
		-321.0
		

		2,539.6
		2,629.0
		2,698.6
		2,787.1
		3,040.9
		3,263.7
		

		15.6
		524.0
		535.9
		483.6
		590.8
		488.6
	
	
		2009
		2009
		2,105.0
		2,357.3
		2,533.1
		2,825.0
		3,124.4
		3,353.4
		3,543.8
		

		-61.0
		-218.6
		-404.7
		-404.9
		-343.2
		-197.6
		

		2,296.3
		2,314.5
		2,420.3
		2,719.5
		3,010.1
		3,346.3
		

		191.3
		151.8
		116.8
		269.4
		235.0
		325.4
	
	
		2010
		2010
		2,162.7
		2,174.9
		2,669.7
		2,963.6
		3,217.7
		3,465.4
		

		

		-9.0
		-410.9
		-419.8
		-349.6
		-247.9
		

		

		2,166.0
		2,258.8
		2,543.8
		2,868.1
		3,217.4
		

		

		3.3
		-44.6
		93.6
		93.0
		196.6
		

	
	
		2011
		2011
		2,303.5
		2,228.5
		2,554.9
		3,090.1
		3,442.0
		

		

		

		0.0
		-90.1
		-312.7
		-338.7
		

		

		

		2,228.5
		2,464.7
		2,777.4
		3,103.3
		

		

		

		-75.0
		14.5
		2.3
		82.5
		

		

	
	
		2012
		2012
		2,450.2
		2,522.8
		2,988.2
		3,313.1
		

		

		

		

		-69.8
		-300.4
		-335.1
		

		

		

		

		2,453.0
		2,687.8
		2,978.0
		

		

		

		

		2.9
		-87.3
		-42.8
		

		

		

	
	
		2013
		2013
		2,775.1
		2,708.2
		3,002.6
		

		

		

		

		

		0.0
		0.8
		

		

		

		

		

		2,708.2
		3,003.5
		

		

		

		

		

		-66.9
		-17.4
		

		

		

		

	
	
		2014
		2014
		3,020.8
		3,028.8
		

		

		

		

		

		

		0.8
		

		

		

		

		

		

		3,029.5
		

		

		

		

		

		

		8.7
		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Source: Congressional Budget Office.
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Notes: The projections were prepared in January or February of the year indicated, except for the projection prepared in May 1996.
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Actual amounts are from data available from the Office of Management and Budget as of January 2015.

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		As a result of rounding and the unavailability of the full details on CBO's projections from 1982 to 1984, the sum of the projections for the seven tax sources does not exactly match the amounts for total revenues.
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	



Sheet 3: 2. Misestimates of GDP

	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
		This file presents data that supplement CBO's November 2015 report, CBO's Revenue Forecasting Record.
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		www.cbo.gov/publication/50831
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections Attributable to Misestimates of GDP (or GNP)
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Billions of Dollars, by Fiscal Year
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Projection Prepared in January or February
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Year 1 of Projection
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		CBO's Forecast Errors, Adjusted to Account for Subsequent Revisions to History  (Percent, with calculation formula included)
		
	
		Current Measures for Year 1
		

		

		CBO's Projections for GDP or GNP
		

		
	
		Actual GNP
		Actual GDP
		GDP or GNP?
		Year 0
		Year 1
		Year 2
		Year 3
		Year 4
		Year 5
		Year 6
		

		Year 1
		Year 2
		Year 3
		Year 4
		Year 5
		Year 6
	
	
		

		1981
		3,169
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		1982
		1982
		3,351
		

		GNP
		2,857
		3,060
		3,430
		3,786
		4,168
		4,549
		4,981
		

		1.3
		6.3
		5.2
		7.6
		10.7
		15.1
	
	
		1983
		1983
		3,577
		

		GNP
		3,031
		3,195
		3,495
		3,823
		4,148
		4,467
		4,794
		

		-1.3
		-3.2
		-1.6
		0.7
		2.9
		2.4
	
	
		1984
		1984
		3,991
		

		GNP
		3,232
		3,564
		3,912
		4,252
		4,613
		4,977
		5,376
		

		-1.1
		0.8
		3.3
		6.4
		6.4
		6.4
	
	
		1985
		1985
		4,298
		

		GNP
		3,581
		3,855
		4,158
		4,483
		4,830
		5,204
		5,606
		

		0.0
		1.7
		4.1
		4.0
		3.7
		5.1
	
	
		1986
		1986
		4,556
		

		GNP
		3,937
		4,192
		4,504
		4,838
		5,214
		5,619
		6,047
		

		0.4
		2.5
		2.0
		1.8
		3.2
		7.4
	
	
		1987
		1987
		4,797
		

		GNP
		4,163
		4,399
		4,698
		5,033
		5,406
		5,792
		6,186
		

		0.4
		-0.7
		-1.5
		-0.5
		3.1
		4.7
	
	
		1988
		1988
		5,177
		

		GNP
		4,409
		4,678
		4,984
		5,326
		5,687
		6,077
		6,497
		

		-1.7
		-3.0
		-2.5
		0.7
		2.3
		3.5
	
	
		1989
		1989
		5,593
		

		GNP
		4,780
		5,122
		5,454
		5,812
		6,184
		6,581
		7,006
		

		-0.8
		-0.6
		2.4
		3.6
		4.4
		5.1
	
	
		1990
		1990
		5,944
		

		GNP
		5,153
		5,453
		5,800
		6,180
		6,583
		7,010
		7,462
		

		-0.4
		2.4
		3.7
		4.6
		5.4
		6.4
	
	
		1991
		1991
		6,146
		6,110
		GNP
		5,406
		5,624
		6,003
		6,405
		6,813
		7,246
		7,705
		

		0.6
		2.1
		3.1
		3.7
		4.7
		5.8
	
	
		1992
		1992
		6,467
		6,435
		GDP
		5,627
		5,846
		6,237
		6,621
		7,004
		7,414
		7,849
		

		-1.4
		-0.3
		-0.1
		0.3
		0.9
		0.5
	
	
		1993
		1993
		6,829
		6,795
		GDP
		5,869
		6,173
		6,508
		6,855
		7,202
		7,543
		7,873
		

		-0.4
		-0.9
		-0.9
		-1.0
		-2.5
		-3.6
	
	
		1994
		1994
		7,222
		7,198
		GDP
		6,295
		6,637
		7,006
		7,386
		7,780
		8,185
		8,596
		

		-0.5
		-0.3
		-0.1
		-1.0
		-1.3
		-2.4
	
	
		1995
		1995
		7,610
		7,583
		GDP
		6,632
		7,036
		7,370
		7,747
		8,152
		8,572
		9,013
		

		0.7
		0.3
		-0.9
		-1.2
		-2.2
		-3.6
	
	
		1996
		1996
		8,010
		7,978
		GDP
		7,181
		7,491
		7,853
		8,225
		8,627
		9,047
		9,489
		

		-0.8
		-2.2
		-3.0
		-4.2
		-5.9
		-5.1
	
	
		1997
		1997
		8,511
		8,483
		GDP
		7,484
		7,829
		8,182
		8,576
		8,991
		9,421
		9,870
		

		-1.6
		-2.6
		-3.9
		-5.6
		-4.9
		-3.3
	
	
		1998
		1998
		

		8,955
		GDP
		7,972
		8,369
		8,729
		9,097
		9,499
		9,933
		10,405
		

		-0.5
		-2.3
		-4.6
		-4.3
		-2.8
		-2.3
	
	
		1999
		1999
		

		9,511
		GDP
		8,404
		8,762
		9,095
		9,476
		9,904
		10,358
		10,837
		

		-1.8
		-4.5
		-4.4
		-3.0
		-2.6
		-4.5
	
	
		2000
		2000
		

		10,148
		GDP
		9,116
		9,583
		10,038
		10,496
		10,954
		11,422
		11,924
		

		-1.5
		-0.9
		0.7
		0.8
		-1.4
		-3.5
	
	
		2001
		2001
		

		10,565
		GDP
		9,828
		10,319
		10,880
		11,477
		12,059
		12,656
		13,279
		

		0.9
		3.3
		4.6
		3.0
		1.4
		0.2
	
	
		2002
		2002
		

		10,877
		GDP
		10,150
		10,315
		10,890
		11,556
		12,168
		12,803
		13,468
		

		-1.3
		0.0
		-0.5
		-1.7
		-2.6
		-2.1
	
	
		2003
		2003
		

		11,332
		GDP
		10,337
		10,756
		11,309
		11,934
		12,582
		13,263
		13,972
		

		-0.1
		-1.6
		-2.6
		-3.3
		-2.6
		-0.3
	
	
		2004
		2004
		

		12,089
		GDP
		10,829
		11,469
		12,091
		12,682
		13,236
		13,862
		14,519
		

		-0.7
		-1.8
		-3.0
		-3.3
		-1.7
		5.4
	
	
		2005
		2005
		

		12,889
		GDP
		11,553
		12,233
		12,888
		13,586
		14,307
		15,029
		15,757
		

		-0.7
		-1.5
		-0.7
		1.5
		9.1
		11.4
	
	
		2006
		2006
		

		13,685
		GDP
		12,293
		13,082
		13,781
		14,508
		15,264
		16,021
		16,768
		

		0.2
		0.9
		3.1
		11.0
		13.5
		14.3
	
	
		2007
		2007
		

		14,323
		GDP
		13,065
		13,645
		14,300
		15,014
		15,742
		16,465
		17,205
		

		-0.2
		1.5
		9.1
		11.4
		12.1
		12.4
	
	
		2008
		2008
		

		14,752
		GDP
		13,670
		14,201
		14,812
		15,600
		16,445
		17,256
		18,043
		

		0.9
		7.7
		10.5
		12.0
		12.8
		14.0
	
	
		2009
		2009
		

		14,415
		GDP
		14,224
		14,257
		14,452
		15,137
		16,048
		17,035
		17,986
		

		2.6
		1.3
		2.1
		3.9
		6.6
		8.1
	
	
		2010
		2010
		

		14,798
		GDP
		14,236
		14,595
		14,992
		15,730
		16,676
		17,606
		

		

		-0.1
		-1.3
		-0.6
		1.8
		3.3
		

	
	
		2011
		2011
		

		15,379
		GDP
		14,513
		15,034
		15,693
		16,400
		17,258
		

		

		

		-0.3
		-0.2
		0.9
		1.9
		

		

	
	
		2012
		2012
		

		16,026
		GDP
		14,954
		15,508
		15,914
		16,575
		

		

		

		

		-0.5
		-1.3
		-1.3
		

		

		

	
	
		2013
		2013
		

		16,582
		GDP
		15,549
		16,034
		16,646
		

		

		

		

		

		-0.3
		-0.6
		

		

		

		

	
	
		2014
		2014
		

		17,263
		GDP
		16,632
		17,273
		

		

		

		

		

		

		-0.2
		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Source: Congressional Budget Office.
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		Notes: Year 0 represents the last complete historical year before the projection was prepared. For example, for the projection prepared in February 1983, year 0 represents 1982. GDP and GNP are revised after the forecasts are prepared, and the forecast error calculations reflect those revisions.
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		The adjusted forecast for GDP (or GNP) equals GDP (or GNP) as currently measured for the prior historical year multiplied by the projected growth rate at the time the forecast was prepared. That adjusted forecast is compared with GDP (or GNP) are currently measured.
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

		

	
	
		GNP was forecast before 1992. GDP was forecast from 1992 onward.

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This file presents data that supplement CBO's November 2015 report, CBO's Revenue Forecasting Record.
www.cbo.gov/publication/50831


Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections of Total Revenues
Billions of Dollars, by Fiscal Year

Projection Prepared in January or February
	Year 1 of Projection	Actual Amount for Year 1													CBO's Projections Adjusted for Subsequently Enacted Legislation						CBO's Forecast Errors
			CBO's Projections						Estimated Effect of Legislation Enacted After CBO's Projections Were Prepared						(CBO's projections plus estimated effects of subsequently enacted legislation)						(CBO's projections adjusted for subsequently enacted legislation minus actual amounts)
			Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
1982	1982	617.8	631.0	652.0	701.0	763.0	818.0	882.0	0.0	20.0	46.9	63.1	76.9	109.9	631.0	672.0	747.9	826.1	894.9	991.9	13.2	71.4	81.5	92.1	125.7	137.6
1983	1983	600.6	606.0	653.0	715.0	768.0	822.0	878.0	0.0	4.9	17.1	25.9	51.9	65.9	606.0	657.9	732.1	793.9	873.9	943.9	5.4	-8.5	-1.9	24.7	19.6	34.6
1984	1984	666.4	663.0	732.9	794.8	863.4	945.0	1,015.6	0.9	10.1	17.9	41.9	43.9	43.1	663.9	743.0	812.7	905.3	988.9	1,058.7	-2.5	9.0	43.5	51.0	79.6	67.6
1985	1985	734.0	734.9	788.4	855.2	934.2	1,004.5	1,087.6	-0.2	1.6	19.6	19.2	16.4	28.7	734.8	790.0	874.9	953.4	1,021.0	1,116.4	0.8	20.8	20.6	44.1	29.8	84.4
1986	1986	769.2	777.8	844.0	921.0	991.3	1,067.5	1,143.6	0.8	19.6	18.8	15.9	28.0	48.6	778.6	863.6	939.8	1,007.3	1,095.5	1,192.2	9.4	9.3	30.6	16.2	63.5	137.2
1987	1987	854.3	833.9	900.2	961.8	1,050.4	1,137.5	1,220.2	0.0	10.6	16.3	21.2	37.5	38.1	833.9	910.8	978.1	1,071.6	1,175.1	1,258.3	-20.4	1.5	-13.0	39.6	120.1	167.1
1988	1988	909.2	897.3	953.0	1,036.0	1,111.9	1,181.3	1,262.2	0.0	0.1	3.5	20.6	24.9	36.0	897.3	953.1	1,039.5	1,132.6	1,206.2	1,298.2	-11.9	-38.0	7.5	77.6	115.0	143.9
1989	1989	991.1	982.9	1,068.6	1,140.2	1,208.7	1,280.5	1,358.7	0.5	-0.7	15.4	19.2	29.8	61.8	983.4	1,067.9	1,155.5	1,227.9	1,310.2	1,420.5	-7.8	36.0	100.5	136.7	155.9	161.9
1990	1990	1,032.0	1,067.2	1,137.3	1,203.8	1,276.7	1,354.5	1,437.7	0.0	16.8	20.9	30.6	61.8	80.9	1,067.2	1,154.1	1,224.7	1,307.3	1,416.4	1,518.5	35.2	99.1	133.4	153.0	157.8	166.8
1991	1991	1,055.0	1,093.8	1,169.7	1,251.0	1,331.9	1,415.9	1,496.4	-1.0	-12.1	-1.2	24.8	42.2	49.1	1,092.8	1,157.6	1,249.8	1,356.7	1,458.1	1,545.5	37.8	66.4	95.4	98.1	106.3	92.5
1992	1992	1,091.2	1,102.4	1,178.7	1,262.7	1,341.5	1,415.1	1,491.6	-14.5	-0.9	25.5	42.5	49.4	62.2	1,087.9	1,177.8	1,288.2	1,384.0	1,464.5	1,553.8	-3.3	23.4	29.6	32.2	11.5	-25.4
1993	1993	1,154.3	1,142.7	1,215.3	1,290.6	1,356.2	1,413.7	1,481.6	0.0	26.3	43.7	50.0	62.9	49.1	1,142.7	1,241.6	1,334.4	1,406.2	1,476.6	1,530.7	-11.7	-17.0	-17.4	-46.8	-102.6	-191.0
1994	1994	1,258.6	1,250.5	1,338.2	1,410.7	1,478.7	1,555.9	1,629.9	0.0	0.3	-1.4	2.3	-10.7	-6.8	1,250.5	1,338.5	1,409.4	1,481.0	1,545.2	1,623.1	-8.1	-13.3	-43.7	-98.2	-176.6	-204.3
1995	1995	1,351.8	1,355.2	1,417.7	1,475.5	1,546.4	1,618.3	1,697.5	-0.2	-0.1	3.7	-8.0	-3.4	-14.5	1,355.0	1,417.6	1,479.2	1,538.4	1,614.9	1,683.0	3.2	-35.4	-100.0	-183.4	-212.5	-342.2
1996	1996	1,453.1	1,428.3	1,483.3	1,543.6	1,609.0	1,680.6	1,757.6	0.1	3.7	-8.9	-5.0	-16.9	-102.7	1,428.3	1,486.9	1,534.7	1,604.0	1,663.8	1,654.9	-24.7	-92.3	-187.1	-223.4	-361.4	-336.2
1997	1997	1,579.2	1,507.3	1,566.9	1,633.6	1,705.3	1,780.9	1,860.2	2.8	-8.5	-5.5	-17.6	-102.9	-105.1	1,510.1	1,558.4	1,628.1	1,687.8	1,678.0	1,755.2	-69.1	-163.3	-199.4	-337.4	-313.1	-97.9
1998	1998	1,721.7	1,664.8	1,728.5	1,778.6	1,846.6	1,929.8	2,007.7	0.6	1.3	5.3	-79.4	-87.6	-187.1	1,665.4	1,729.8	1,783.9	1,767.2	1,842.3	1,820.6	-56.4	-97.6	-241.2	-223.9	-10.9	38.2
1999	1999	1,827.5	1,814.6	1,870.0	1,930.4	2,014.6	2,090.6	2,184.0	0.0	3.2	-78.7	-85.7	-185.4	-270.6	1,814.6	1,873.2	1,851.6	1,928.9	1,905.2	1,913.4	-12.9	-152.0	-139.4	75.7	122.9	33.3
2000	2000	2,025.2	1,945.1	2,016.3	2,096.2	2,176.7	2,262.5	2,361.4	0.0	-72.7	-77.7	-183.2	-268.6	-215.3	1,945.1	1,943.6	2,018.6	1,993.5	1,993.9	2,146.1	-80.1	-47.5	165.4	211.2	113.8	-7.5
2001	2001	1,991.1	2,134.6	2,235.8	2,343.0	2,453.0	2,569.8	2,688.8	-70.2	-74.6	-179.6	-265.1	-211.5	-189.7	2,064.4	2,161.2	2,163.5	2,187.9	2,358.3	2,499.1	73.3	308.1	381.2	307.8	204.7	92.2
2002	2002	1,853.1	1,982.7	2,070.5	2,205.9	2,341.5	2,447.3	2,568.2	-42.9	-93.3	-161.9	-108.5	-61.2	-78.0	1,939.8	1,977.1	2,044.0	2,233.0	2,386.0	2,490.1	86.6	194.8	163.9	79.4	-20.9	-77.8
2003	2003	1,782.3	1,921.5	2,054.4	2,225.1	2,370.1	2,504.7	2,647.8	-53.3	-132.2	-104.3	-76.7	-94.7	-237.0	1,868.2	1,922.2	2,120.8	2,293.3	2,409.9	2,410.8	85.9	42.0	-32.8	-113.5	-158.0	-113.2
2004	2004	1,880.1	1,817.1	2,049.1	2,255.9	2,385.4	2,505.5	2,643.7	3.3	-26.3	-56.2	-81.2	-220.3	-205.5	1,820.5	2,022.7	2,199.7	2,304.2	2,285.2	2,438.2	-59.6	-130.9	-207.2	-263.7	-238.8	333.2
2005	2005	2,153.6	2,057.3	2,212.3	2,357.0	2,507.7	2,661.9	2,806.4	0.1	-12.0	-55.3	-205.8	-197.0	-233.5	2,057.3	2,200.3	2,301.7	2,301.8	2,464.8	2,573.0	-96.3	-206.6	-266.3	-222.2	359.9	410.3
2006	2006	2,406.9	2,312.4	2,461.2	2,597.8	2,742.8	2,882.7	3,138.5	-4.4	-47.8	-202.4	-194.7	-231.0	-405.2	2,308.1	2,413.4	2,395.4	2,548.1	2,651.7	2,733.3	-98.8	-154.6	-128.6	443.1	488.9	429.8
2007	2007	2,568.0	2,542.3	2,719.6	2,809.3	2,900.8	3,166.6	3,404.4	-0.2	-184.4	-168.8	-211.9	-396.0	-391.3	2,542.1	2,535.2	2,640.5	2,688.9	2,770.6	3,013.0	-25.9	11.3	535.5	526.1	467.2	562.8
2008	2008	2,524.0	2,654.4	2,817.0	2,907.0	3,181.5	3,442.3	3,584.7	-114.8	-188.1	-208.4	-394.5	-401.3	-321.0	2,539.6	2,629.0	2,698.6	2,787.1	3,040.9	3,263.7	15.6	524.0	535.9	483.6	590.8	488.6
2009	2009	2,105.0	2,357.3	2,533.1	2,825.0	3,124.4	3,353.4	3,543.8	-61.0	-218.6	-404.7	-404.9	-343.2	-197.6	2,296.3	2,314.5	2,420.3	2,719.5	3,010.1	3,346.3	191.3	151.8	116.8	269.4	235.0	325.4
2010	2010	2,162.7	2,174.9	2,669.7	2,963.6	3,217.7	3,465.4		-9.0	-410.9	-419.8	-349.6	-247.9		2,166.0	2,258.8	2,543.8	2,868.1	3,217.4		3.3	-44.6	93.6	93.0	196.6
2011	2011	2,303.5	2,228.5	2,554.9	3,090.1	3,442.0			0.0	-90.1	-312.7	-338.7			2,228.5	2,464.7	2,777.4	3,103.3			-75.0	14.5	2.3	82.5
2012	2012	2,450.2	2,522.8	2,988.2	3,313.1				-69.8	-300.4	-335.1				2,453.0	2,687.8	2,978.0				2.9	-87.3	-42.8
2013	2013	2,775.1	2,708.2	3,002.6					0.0	0.8					2,708.2	3,003.5					-66.9	-17.4
2014	2014	3,020.8	3,028.8						0.8						3,029.5						8.7

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Notes: The projections were prepared in January or February of the year indicated, except for the projection prepared in May 1996.

Actual amounts are from data available from the Office of Management and Budget as of January 2015.

As a result of rounding and the unavailability of the full details on CBO's projections from 1982 to 1984, the sum of the projections for the seven tax sources does not exactly match the amounts for total revenues.

This file presents data that supplement CBO's November 2015 report, CBO's Revenue Forecasting Record.
www.cbo.gov/publication/50831


Errors in CBO's Revenue Projections Attributable to Misestimates of GDP (or GNP)
Billions of Dollars, by Fiscal Year

Projection Prepared in January or February
	Year 1 of Projection											CBO's Forecast Errors, Adjusted to Account for Subsequent Revisions to History (Percent, with calculation formula included)
		Current Measures for Year 1				CBO's Projections for GDP or GNP
		Actual GNP	Actual GDP	GDP or GNP?	Year 0	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5	Year 6
	1981	3,169
1982	1982	3,351		GNP	2,857	3,060	3,430	3,786	4,168	4,549	4,981	1.3	6.3	5.2	7.6	10.7	15.1
1983	1983	3,577		GNP	3,031	3,195	3,495	3,823	4,148	4,467	4,794	-1.3	-3.2	-1.6	0.7	2.9	2.4
1984	1984	3,991		GNP	3,232	3,564	3,912	4,252	4,613	4,977	5,376	-1.1	0.8	3.3	6.4	6.4	6.4
1985	1985	4,298		GNP	3,581	3,855	4,158	4,483	4,830	5,204	5,606	0.0	1.7	4.1	4.0	3.7	5.1
1986	1986	4,556		GNP	3,937	4,192	4,504	4,838	5,214	5,619	6,047	0.4	2.5	2.0	1.8	3.2	7.4
1987	1987	4,797		GNP	4,163	4,399	4,698	5,033	5,406	5,792	6,186	0.4	-0.7	-1.5	-0.5	3.1	4.7
1988	1988	5,177		GNP	4,409	4,678	4,984	5,326	5,687	6,077	6,497	-1.7	-3.0	-2.5	0.7	2.3	3.5
1989	1989	5,593		GNP	4,780	5,122	5,454	5,812	6,184	6,581	7,006	-0.8	-0.6	2.4	3.6	4.4	5.1
1990	1990	5,944		GNP	5,153	5,453	5,800	6,180	6,583	7,010	7,462	-0.4	2.4	3.7	4.6	5.4	6.4
1991	1991	6,146	6,110	GNP	5,406	5,624	6,003	6,405	6,813	7,246	7,705	0.6	2.1	3.1	3.7	4.7	5.8
1992	1992	6,467	6,435	GDP	5,627	5,846	6,237	6,621	7,004	7,414	7,849	-1.4	-0.3	-0.1	0.3	0.9	0.5
1993	1993	6,829	6,795	GDP	5,869	6,173	6,508	6,855	7,202	7,543	7,873	-0.4	-0.9	-0.9	-1.0	-2.5	-3.6
1994	1994	7,222	7,198	GDP	6,295	6,637	7,006	7,386	7,780	8,185	8,596	-0.5	-0.3	-0.1	-1.0	-1.3	-2.4
1995	1995	7,610	7,583	GDP	6,632	7,036	7,370	7,747	8,152	8,572	9,013	0.7	0.3	-0.9	-1.2	-2.2	-3.6
1996	1996	8,010	7,978	GDP	7,181	7,491	7,853	8,225	8,627	9,047	9,489	-0.8	-2.2	-3.0	-4.2	-5.9	-5.1
1997	1997	8,511	8,483	GDP	7,484	7,829	8,182	8,576	8,991	9,421	9,870	-1.6	-2.6	-3.9	-5.6	-4.9	-3.3
1998	1998		8,955	GDP	7,972	8,369	8,729	9,097	9,499	9,933	10,405	-0.5	-2.3	-4.6	-4.3	-2.8	-2.3
1999	1999		9,511	GDP	8,404	8,762	9,095	9,476	9,904	10,358	10,837	-1.8	-4.5	-4.4	-3.0	-2.6	-4.5
2000	2000		10,148	GDP	9,116	9,583	10,038	10,496	10,954	11,422	11,924	-1.5	-0.9	0.7	0.8	-1.4	-3.5
2001	2001		10,565	GDP	9,828	10,319	10,880	11,477	12,059	12,656	13,279	0.9	3.3	4.6	3.0	1.4	0.2
2002	2002		10,877	GDP	10,150	10,315	10,890	11,556	12,168	12,803	13,468	-1.3	0.0	-0.5	-1.7	-2.6	-2.1
2003	2003		11,332	GDP	10,337	10,756	11,309	11,934	12,582	13,263	13,972	-0.1	-1.6	-2.6	-3.3	-2.6	-0.3
2004	2004		12,089	GDP	10,829	11,469	12,091	12,682	13,236	13,862	14,519	-0.7	-1.8	-3.0	-3.3	-1.7	5.4
2005	2005		12,889	GDP	11,553	12,233	12,888	13,586	14,307	15,029	15,757	-0.7	-1.5	-0.7	1.5	9.1	11.4
2006	2006		13,685	GDP	12,293	13,082	13,781	14,508	15,264	16,021	16,768	0.2	0.9	3.1	11.0	13.5	14.3
2007	2007		14,323	GDP	13,065	13,645	14,300	15,014	15,742	16,465	17,205	-0.2	1.5	9.1	11.4	12.1	12.4
2008	2008		14,752	GDP	13,670	14,201	14,812	15,600	16,445	17,256	18,043	0.9	7.7	10.5	12.0	12.8	14.0
2009	2009		14,415	GDP	14,224	14,257	14,452	15,137	16,048	17,035	17,986	2.6	1.3	2.1	3.9	6.6	8.1
2010	2010		14,798	GDP	14,236	14,595	14,992	15,730	16,676	17,606		-0.1	-1.3	-0.6	1.8	3.3
2011	2011		15,379	GDP	14,513	15,034	15,693	16,400	17,258			-0.3	-0.2	0.9	1.9
2012	2012		16,026	GDP	14,954	15,508	15,914	16,575				-0.5	-1.3	-1.3
2013	2013		16,582	GDP	15,549	16,034	16,646					-0.3	-0.6
2014	2014		17,263	GDP	16,632	17,273						-0.2

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

Notes: Year 0 represents the last complete historical year before the projection was prepared. For example, for the projection prepared in February 1983, year 0 represents 1982. GDP and GNP are revised after the forecasts are prepared, and the forecast error calculations reflect those revisions.


The adjusted forecast for GDP (or GNP) equals GDP (or GNP) as currently measured for the prior historical year multiplied by the projected growth rate at the time the forecast was prepared. That adjusted forecast is compared with GDP (or GNP) are currently measured.


GNP was forecast before 1992. GDP was forecast from 1992 onward.

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